All eyes are on Chicago and the Bears this offseason; they added Ben Johnson, the mastermind behind the Lions’ offense, to the 2024 #1 overall pick in Caleb Williams, and added a dash of first-round tight end Colston Loveland & second-round wide receiver Luther Burden to this room. Expectations are high for the Bears this season, and… I am right along with the consensus. This was the hardest of the overdrafted, underdrafted, sleeper series to write so far, as I am pretty much spot-on consensus for the Chicago Bears. But, we forge on.
Overdrafted:
D.J. Moore, Wide Receiver (WR21, Pick 45 Overall)
My Ranking: WR22
You see what I mean, in that intro? It’s hard to find guys on the Bears that I am that far off of consensus on, especially the men up at the top. But, D.J. Moore is the most expensive player on the team, and I am worried that the weapons added this offseason could take away from Moore.
Moore has been a volume merchant in his career, averaging 141 targets per 17 games since his sophomore season. Still, he hasn’t had this much talent around him since the late 2010s, when the Carolina Panthers featured Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen, and Curtis Samuel. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze all had over 100 targets last year, but Cole Kmet was fourth with 55.
The Bears now have a lot of target competition for D.J. Moore, and I fear a better offense will leave Moore with less to do. I am more bullish on Rome Odunze taking a step forward, as he has a higher average depth of target (13.8 versus 7.5) and had the second-most unrealized air yards in the league last year. If those air yards get realized, then that’s less for Moore to do.
Moore also took a step back last season, failing to post 1000 yards for the second time in three years, while posting a measly 6.9 yards per target. While the Ben Johnson addition likely gets him back over 1,000 yards, he is headed in the wrong direction.
Throw in the addition of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, and there’s a squeeze on D.J. Moore for 2025. I would still draft him as a backend WR2, but I do recognize that there is a downside to that approach.
Underdrafted:
D’Andre Swift, Running Back (RB27, Pick 69 Overall)
My Rank: RB21
While I am not bullish on Swift as a player, Ben Johnson and Swift have a history, and Johnson orchestrated Swift’s most efficient season of his career. Back in 2022, D’Andre Swift was a third-year back in Detroit, and Ben Johnson was a first-year offensive coordinator. Swift was coming off a 4.3 yards per carry average and a 7.5 yards per reception average in his first two years. In steps Ben Johnson, and Swift remained a part-time back… but his yards per carry jumped to 5.5, and his yards per reception to 8.1.
The Lions traded Swift in the offseason to turn to Sonic & Knuckles (Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery), but Johnson turned Swift into a far more efficient running back. I anticipate Johnson & Swift working well together this season, as Johnson uses Swift as his transition back while he gets all of his pieces in order, riding him hard and putting him away wet when the Bears likely move on from him next offseason. This increased usage, with an anticipated efficiency improvement, has me somewhat excited for D’Andre Swift next season.
Sleeper:
Roschon Johnson, Running Back (RB51, Pick 157)
My Ranking: RB57
With Ben Johnson and his predilection for running the ball coming to town, you have to figure that Johnson and Johnson (see what I did there) will combine to find yourself some considerable fantasy value this season. You don’t have to look any further than David Montgomery to see the potential sleeper case for Roschon Johnson. Folks forget that David Montgomery was a massive loser for folks when the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs immediately after acquiring DMont. Revisionist history will tell you that everyone thought that Montgomery was a fait accompli, but the year he and Gibbs united, he was RB28 and an eighth-round pick.
So, David Montgomery proved everyone wrong there. Despite Roschon never being the same prospect as Montgomery, Johnson could achieve a similar level of success in 2025. Johnson took a step back last year, but he was a league-average back in 2023 and managed six touchdowns last season as a hammer back. Johnson could take a similar leap forward in 2025 that Montgomery took in 2023, with different starting points. Johnson’s upside is a flex back, not a must-start running back like Montgomery, but at pick 157, that is a huge victory.
