The Washington Commanders were a pleasant surprise last season, as they embarked on their rebuild with rookie Jayden Daniels, and promptly made it to the NFC Championship Game, taking down the presumptive favorites out of the NFC (the Lions) along the way. They’re currently having issues with star wide receiver Terry McLaurin wanting a new contract, but a stud like Scary Terry wishing to stay with your team longer is a real champagne problem. The Commanders were caught flat-footed by their success last season, so their weapons for Daniels are not the best or the most dynamic. But they tried to rectify that this offseason. Let’s take a look at a few of those weapons with the Washington Commanders’ overdrafted, underdrafted, and sleeper players!
Overdrafted:
Brian Robinson Jr., Running Back (RB30, Pick 81 Overall)
My Ranking: RB30
Brian Robinson has a default position at RB30, as he is one of the last backs with a guaranteed role. However, his skill set has me struggling to find his upside there, especially considering what he excels at and what his teammates in the running back room excel at.
Brian Robinson is a banger, and he can carry the ball a lot. He is also an explosive runner when given space to operate at his maximum potential. Forty-six running backs had at least 100 carries last season, and he ranked fourteenth in explosive run rate. Unfortunately, if things got messy, he couldn’t make it work. He was stuffed at the twelfth-highest rate, was tied for 38th of 46 in missed tackles forced per carry, and was 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Ultimately, he proved to be a league-average ball carrier on a down-to-down basis. Improvements along the line can lead to him getting holes more often in 2025, but he was already top-15 in yards before contact, a measure of pass blocking effectiveness.
Brian Robinson’s main carrying trait is his pass-blocking ability, and the Commanders drafted the best pass-blocking running back in this draft (Jacory Croskey-Merritt). So, that takes a bit away from Robinson. Robinson also doesn’t catch passes (65 in three seasons), and the Commanders have one of the best pass-catching backs (Austin Ekeler, with 3 seasons over 65 catches).
So, the Commanders have a problem where Brian Robinson can be a two-down banger, but not a pass catcher or the team’s best pass blocker. He ranked 28th last season in fantasy points per game, with zero games from JCM and twelve games from Austin Ekeler the previous year. With both presumably in the fold all season long, I’m not super sure what the upside might be here for drafting Brian Robinson.
Underdrafted:
Deebo Samuel, Wide Receiver (WR39, Pick 85 Overall)
My Ranking: WR50
While I understand the irony of ranking Deebo 11 players behind his consensus rank while calling him underdrafted, I believe Deebo Samuel is not as cooked as many believe. Last season, we saw him fail miserably in his last two prime-time games as a 49er (8 targets, four receptions, 21 yards against the Lions & Rams), and the Niners sold him for a fifth-round pick. While he was traded for a ham sandwich, I believe that Deebo Samuel still has something in the tank.
Headed into week seven in 2024, Deebo Samuel averaged four catches for 67 yards and four carries for 10 yards per game. All told, he was on pace for a 109 target, 98 catch, 1139 receiving yard (3.4 TD) pace, with 65 carries for 173 yards and another 3.4 touchdowns on the ground season.
Then, in week seven, he left the game against the Chiefs and checked into a hospital with pneumonia. Samuel didn’t miss a game and was back the next week to post 4/71 against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, things quickly sped downhill, and Deebo went from a 173-touch, 1312-yard, 7-touchdown pace to a 10-touch, 793-yard, 4-touchdown pace. He completely fell off, and I am more than ready to blame pneumonia, though I am hedging my bets to think he might just be cooked.
Sleeper:
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Running Back (RB71, Pick 207 Overall)
My Ranking: RB48
If you listen to the Football Absurdity Podcast (check us out on Apple Podcasts!), then you knew that this was coming. I can’t shut up about JCM, and I had him as a top-ten running back prospect in this stacked class. He reminds me a ton of Aaron Jones, and he is the best pass blocker in the draft. He is also a skilled pass catcher and hyperathletic runner. Eligibility issues kept him from playing more than one game in 2024: 13 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown, and he was the East-West Shrine Bowl MVP.
He has a runway before getting significant snaps, but he has juice that nobody else in this running back room has. He is also clearly better than Chris Rodriguez, putting him at RB3 to start camp… RB3 behind notoriously oft-injured Austin Ekeler. He has a chance to produce as soon as the Commanders put him on a football field, but it’s uncertain when that will be. The only thing I do know is that I am very excited to take him as a stash candidate in all my leagues.
