As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be looking to eradicate a drunken golf cart shopping mall spree video from the Internet, and they had better be me. Tyler Boyd could become the go-to guy for Joe “5” Burrows, but what could that mean for fantasy?
Tyler Boyd ADP and AAV:
STD: WR32, 69 overall
PPR: WR32, 74 overall
Tyler Boyd Average Auction Value: $3
Tyler Boyd Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| GS | 15 | 14 | 1 |
| Tgt | 148 | 108 | 32 |
| Rec | 90 | 76 | 22 |
| Yards | 1046 | 1028 | 225 |
| TD | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Tgt/G | 9.25 | 6.75 | 2.00 |
| Rec/G | 5.63 | 4.75 | 1.38 |
| Rec% | 60.8% | 70.4% | 68.8% |
| Yds/Tgt | 7.07 | 9.52 | 7.03 |
| Yds/Rec | 11.62 | 13.53 | 10.23 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1186 | 1087 | 218 |
| aDOT | 8 | 10.1 | 6.8 |
| YAC | 423 | 426 | 91 |
| YAC/Tgt | 2.86 | 3.94 | 2.84 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.70 | 5.61 | 4.14 |
| YAC% | 40.4% | 41.4% | 40.4% |
| AYMS | 25% | 27% | 8% |
| Tgt MS | 24% | 22% | 10% |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 132.9 | 145.1 | 34.5 |
| HPPR Pts | 177.9 | 183.1 | 45.5 |
| PPR Pts | 222.9 | 221.1 | 56.5 |
| Pts/G | 8.3 | 10.4 | 3.5 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 11.1 | 13.1 | 4.6 |
| PPR Pts/G | 13.9 | 15.8 | 5.7 |
| Pts/Tgt | 0.90 | 1.34 | 1.08 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.20 | 1.70 | 1.42 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.51 | 2.05 | 1.77 |
Tyler Boyd Overview:
Tyler Boyd had a new career-high in yardage last season, but that career-high was just 1,046 yards. And it took him 148 targets to get there. He lost a ton of efficiency with the overall messiness of the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals. Now, A.J. Green returns, and Boyd once again has to navigate an offense that will be unlikely to get him more than 115 targets if things go as they should. Unfortunately, he’s now doing that with a rookie quarterback, as well. Since 2010, only three wide receivers have top-24 wide receiver seasons from first-round rookie quarterbacks. Things look exceptionally bleak for Tyler Boyd, who many have tapped as a breakout candidate. The ceiling just doesn’t exist for him, but it’s hard to fully argue against drafting someone who has 100+ targets in two-straight seasons.
Tyler Boyd Draft Strategy:
Tyler Boyd Auction Value ($200 Budget): $6
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
There is a lot going on with the Cincinnati offense that we need to reckon with before assessing any sort of upside to Boyd’s ADP. He’s going in the fifth-round in standard scoring and the seventh-round in PPR. That’s… aggressive, to say the least. He’s the second option for a rookie quarterback (see above) who depends on A.J. Green pulling coverage to have any standard of efficiency in his receiving game. And we all know A.J. Green is going to get hurt. If you want to buy a guy whose upside is 1,100 yards and five touchdowns in the fifth or seventh round, so be it. There are a lot of guys who have more upside and higher floors going in the same range.
That isn’t to say that Boyd couldn’t have production this season, the top-24 seasons are just likely on pause for now, given the track record of rookie QBs and their wide receivers. Proceed with caution, but know you’re likely buying a WR3 at this price, and not a WR2, as he has been.
Best Case Scenario:
Tyler Boyd and Joe Burrow make sweet music together after A.J. Green again dies from a mystery ailment. Boyd is a WR2 at a WR3 price.
Worst Case Scenario
There are growing pains in Cincinnati and Boyd is not fantasy-relevant, and you get a tenth-round value at a sixth-round (split the difference) price tag.
[Header Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/navin75/7981448539 under CC BY SA 2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
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