As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and points per game leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.
Marlon Mack ADP and AAV
Update 8/27/19: The sky is falling in Indianapolis, but there’s still value to be had. Mack in the fourth should give you a decent enough return, maybe spend up to $20 for him at auction. He’s no longer a solid RB2 candidate though, because Indy’s offense will take a big step back.
Standard: 17th among RBs, 33rd overall
PPR: 16th among TEs, 34th overall
Marlon Mack Average Auction Value (AAV) $200 Budget: $40
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 19th | 161.1 | 10th | 13.4 |
| 2017 | 46th | 82.3 | 53rd | 5.9 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 21st | 178.4 | 14th | 14.8 |
| 2017 | 48th | 103.3 | 59th | 7.4 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY USAGE
| Carries | Carries Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 195 | 16.3 | 17 | 1.4 |
| 2017 | 93 | 6.6 | 21 | 1.7 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Overview: Mack broke out as the go-to back in Indianapolis’ fast-moving offense. This propelled him to finish as a middle RB2. The questions about him remain whether the Colts will lean on him more and whether his injury history will catch up with him.
Strategy: Our Marlon Mack Auction Value ($200 Budget): $19
We like Mack if he falls to the 3rd, but he’s just too risky to reach for, especially with a lot of high-upside backs going around the same time (Fournette, Lindsay, Freeman, etc.) compared to the players who are going about half a rounjd higher (Nick Chubb, Mike Evans, George Kittle). He also injured the same hamstring twice, last year, which is another element pushing him out of the second round. See if you can get him for ADP or AAV, but if not, just let someone else reach for him and work on another guy with more upside. Mack’s ceiling is limited by his upright running style and the Colts’ heavy passing game.
Best Case Scenario: Mack stays healthy and emerges as a low-end RB1
Worst Case Scenario: Indianapolis starts spreading the carries around to take the toll off of Mack, he ends up in the RB2/3 zone.
