As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper. Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players. We are only focusing on the top-rated players in standard scoring and PPR leagues.
With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years. I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore. I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span. We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best tight end value lies.
OJ Howard ADP and AAV
Current ADP: As of 06/19/2019
Standard: 4 among TEs, 50 overall
PPR: 4 among TEs, 61 overall
Average Auction Value ($200 Budget): 16
Stats:
FANTASY SCORING — STANDARD
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 10th | 86.5 | 5th | 8.7 |
| 2017 | 17th | 75.2 | 11th | 5.8 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
FANTASY SCORING — PPR
| Rank | Total Points | PPG Rank | PPG | |
| 2018 | 14th | 120.5 | 5th | 12.1 |
| 2017 | 21st | 101.2 | 19th | 7.8 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
PLAYER USAGE
| Receptions | Receptions Per Game | Targets | Targets Per Game | |
| 2018 | 34 | 3.4 | 48 | 4.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | 1.3 | 39 | 2.8 |
| 2016 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Overview:
“The mind of the subject will desperately struggle to create [decent tight end prospects] where none exist…”
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You know how when you shake a bag of potato chips, the good ones rise to the top? Well, that’s like this year’s tight end pool, except a car ran over the bag of potato chips so that there are only 3 good ones left. Sure a few others are rising to the top, but they are all noticeably broken. We want there to some decent mid-round tight ends, but there just aren’t in a pool where 2-3 of the top 5 TEs end up being late-round fliers. This has inflated OJ Howard’s cost on draft boards and auction lists. Yes, he’s definitely a solid contender for the top 5 prospects, this year. This inflation ignores the canyon-esque gap between the top 3 TEs (Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle) and everyone else.
Strategy:
Our Auction Value ($200 Budget): $12
It’s just not worth a 4th or 5th round pick to gamble on a guy who has such a small sample size and landed on IR with an ankle injury both seasons in the league. Like all tight ends that aren’t the big three, it’s best to just wait on a guy to fall 2 rounds below ADP after most other owners reach for a mediocre bet. We’d snap up Howard in the 7th round, but there are great players at all the other positions we’d rather have who are going in round 6
Best Case Scenario: Howard has a top-three upside. When he plays, he’s been a top-five guy.
Worst Case Scenario: Howard’s compounding leg and ankle injuries keep him either hobbled or land him on the injury list.
